Field Notes from a Catastrophe

In 2003, the Dutch media ran a public service campaign entitled “The Netherlands Lives with Water.” A quarter of the country lines below sea level, and another quarter is at high flood risk. In the 1950s, storms flooded Zeeland, killing nearly 2,000 people. Global warming produces flooding because warming water expands, and atmospheric warming alters precipitation patterns. Some of the most densely populated regions on Earth—the Mississippi Delta, the Ganges Delta, and the Thames basin—are all at risk. Eelke Turkstra of the Dutch water ministry believes sea levels could rise by two feet by the end of the century. The Dutch government is selectively buying up rural areas to protect population centers.

Were the west Antarctic or Greenland ice sheet to melt, sea levels would rise by at least 15 feet, or 35 feet together. Most scientists concur that a dangerous level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is around 450 to 400 ppm. Studies of ice cores at Antarctica’s Vostok station show that by the end of the century, the world will enter an entirely new climate of which modern humanity has no prior experience. This climate would resemble the Eocene, nearly 50 million years ago, when crocodiles inhabited Colorado. Maasbommel town on the River Meuse has transformed an RV park into amphibious homes. The project has been carried out by one of the Netherlands’ largest construction firms, Dura Vermeer, which is also engineering buoyant roads and greenhouses.

Five years before Kolbert’s book, Robert Socolow, former Princeton engineering professor, became codirector of the BP and Ford-funded Carbon Mitigation Initiative. He set about determining the scale of the problem. Carbon emissions are linked with population and economic growth, and the adoption of new technologies. Estimates place the world population between 7 and 11 billion people in 2050. Energy demand in developing countries is increasing rapidly, making their adoption of energy-efficient technologies of import. Carbon dioxide levels are predicted to reach 500 ppm by the middle of the century. Socolow decided immediate action was necessary. He divided the problem into what he called “stabilization wedges,” with each preventing 1 billion metric tons of carbon emissions per year by 2054. At the time of writing, annual emissions are 7 million metric tons and expected to double in 50 years. Socolow devised 15 wedges, including photovoltaic cells, wind, and nuclear power. Yet these wedges come with caveats. The PV cells needed to power America would canvas a space the size of Connecticut. Nuclear generates radioactive waste, and a doubling in the world’s capacity of nuclear energy would be required. Scaling of other energy sources would need to be similarly dramatic to meet energy demand.

Because there is no direct cost to emitting carbon dioxide, none of these wedges are likely to be implemented, which would entail a departure from “business as usual.” The United States has however pioneered the use of sulfur dioxide credits, and a carbon tax is another alternative. Still, Socolow did not account for new infrastructure. The longer we wait, the steeper the cuts that will be needed in the latter half of the century to keep carbon concentrations below dangerous levels. Marty Hoffert is a physics professor at New York University, dedicated to finding new, carbonless electricity sources. His ideas include satellite photovoltaic arrays. The two scientists disagree over carbon emissions projections.

Decarbonization has lowered overall emissions, but energy demand is likely to grow in China and India where oil and natural gas are less plentiful than coal. Thus, Hoffert predicts recarbonization. He recommends a budget of between 10 and 20 billion dollars a year for research into new energy sources. This may seem costly, but Kolbert reminds her readers of Carl Sagan’s “Drake equation,” which uses the average lifetime of a civilization to calculate the number intelligent civilizations in our galaxy.

The Kyoto Protocol went into effect in 2005. The United States emits nearly a quarter of the world’s total greenhouse gases. It is also one of just two industrialized nations to reject the Kyoto Protocol. George Bush signed a commitment to “take concrete action to protect the planet” in June 1992 at the United Nations Earth Summit (151). Only the former members of the Soviet bloc had managed to curb their emissions three years later, largely due to economic decline. American senators lobbied against the Kyoto Protocol, which placed economic competitors like China and India under less stringent carbon targets. Yet these carbon targets are necessary because of industrialized nations’ disproportionate contribution to climate change to date. On Earth Day 2000, Clinton advocated cutting emissions, but by the time he left office emissions were 15% higher than in 1990.

The Bush administration withdrew from Kyoto due to “incomplete” scientific knowledge about climate change, in the President’s words (158). A year later, first introduced “greenhouse gas intensity,” which links emissions with economic outputs, essentially facilitating business as usual while actual emissions continue to rise (158). Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works chairman James Inhofe has argued that climate change is a hoax. Simultaneously, energy companies promulgated the idea that climate change is a myth. Clearly, this influenced government policy. Bush dismissed a report by federal researchers which suggested the United States’ omissions would contribute to an annual average warming of between three and nine degrees in the 21st-century.

The day after the Kyoto Protocol, the United Nations hosted a conference called “One Day After Kyoto.” To take effect, the Protocol had to be implemented by countries producing 55% of total emissions. America alone accounts for 34% of Annex 1 emissions. Still, the cuts mandated in the Kyoto Protocol will not stabilize worldwide emissions. Without America, China and India, there is no realistic way to avoid dangerous emissions levels. President Bush actively pursued a “no emissions limit” strategy. Despite European pressure at the G8 Summit, the administration denied anthropogenic warming is a problem. Senator John McCain attempted to implement a bill calling for a reduction of greenhouse emissions to 2000 levels by 2010, and 1990 levels by 2016, but the bill was overturned 55 to 43 in 2005. At the time of Kolbert’s writing, US emissions were 20 percent higher than 1990 levels.

Burlington, Vermont has probably done more than any other city in America to reduce its emissions. Its mayor believes that local action can make a difference. Burlington reduces waste by deconstructing rather than demolishing, and obtaining nearly half its energy from renewable sources. Local farming helps close the loop on waste. The US Mayors’ Climate Protection Agreement to surpass the Kyoto Protocol targets was signed by over 170 mayors. David Hawkins leads the NRDC’s climate program, and works in China to advocate sustainable energy sources. China’s economic growth is expected to double over the next 15 years, largely fueled by coal. The country plans to build 168 new coal plants by 2020. Hawkins argues that China is following the example of the United States.

The Nobel Prize winning Dutch chemist Paul Crutzen and coined the term “Anthropocene” to describe an age in which mankind produces the dominant “forcing” on planet earth. As a result of Crutzen’s work, the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that were destroying the ozone layer in the 1980s were phased out. Even if atmospheric common dioxide were to remain at today’s levels, temperatures would continue to rise due to climate variation. Hurricane Katrina hit just as Kolbert was completing her book. Climate scientists predict rising carbon dioxide levels will increase the intensity but not the frequency of hurricanes. Ten thousand years ago, our civilization began to develop, precisely at the time when the climate cooperated. Feedbacks in the climate system are delicate, easily becoming much larger forces. The most unpredictable of which, Kolbert argues, is the human one.