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61 pages 2 hours read

Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein

Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2021

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Themes

The Subtle Ubiquity of Noise

The book demonstrates the variety of situations where noise is present and yet ignored, despite undeniable evidence of the damage it causes. In showing how noise wreaks havoc in situations where most people unanimously agree that it should not be present, such as across prison sentences for the same crime or in the diagnosis of a patient, the authors make a strong case for treating noise as “an invisible enemy” and waging a war against it (284). The authors acknowledge that the invisibility of noise, especially compared to the more visceral, status-quo-enforcing distractor known as bias, makes it difficult to identify. Indeed, level noise, which can be defined as a consistent tendency in a particular person or institution, has much in common with bias. However, while bias is often focused on a single faulty premise, noise arises in a scattered way, analogous to the authors’ example of a team at the shooting gallery whose shots diverge from the bull’s eye at all different angles. Variance in judgment is a problem when people get treated differently in the same circumstance, and in extreme cases this can cause preventable loss of life or opportunity.

The term noise, which refers to an undesired distraction that has no significance to the task a person is engaged in, has a euphemistic undertone. It evokes the lighthearted image of a lawnmower outside the window while a teenager is trying to do their homework and is asymmetric to the devastating costs it can produce. In the case of occasion noise in particular, where the weather or a sports team’s performance can affect a judge’s sentencing, the disparity between the levity of cause and the drastic nature of effect is particularly great. Similarly, noise as a component of the informational cascade, which sees adult employees copycatting the preference of a charismatic colleague, has the dynamic of a high school popularity contest, destroying the quality of a company’s decisions and, by extension, their credibility. The authors show that the manifestations of noise are almost as varied as those of human error, and wherever people find low-quality thinking processes, they are likely to find poor judgment and the variance that leads to noise.

The techniques recommended to combat noise include distancing measures such as proscribed checklists and the presence of a decision observer who can spot noisy dynamics at work in an organization. Stepping back from a scenario where automatic decisions are being made and consistent tendencies are going unchecked allows for objectivity. Additionally, thinking statistically and observing choices over time can help identify noise because, as the authors have shown with pattern noise, individuals lapse into the same decisions when presented with similar situations. While recognition is only the first step in dealing with noise, it is an important attitudinal shift, as it shows that a person has been laboring under error and prefigures a restructuring of decision processes to ensure that they are more accurate and relevant to the question at hand, rather than a reflection of the decision-maker’s personal identity and life experiences.

The Demotion of Intuition in Favor of Better Decisions

From the outset of the book, the authors take issue with the popular sentiment that intuition is the best form of knowledge. They acknowledge that a significant number of the senior executives they have crossed paths with “tell us proudly that they trust their gut more than any amount of analysis” when it comes to making difficult decisions (162). However, while the executives feel that they have accessed a primitive form of inner wisdom that cuts through noise, the authors view intuition as an “internal signal of judgment completion” that is based on an individual’s feeling that they have resolved the situation in a manner that they feel comfortable with (162). The automatically intuitive judge subdues aspects of the situation that do not fit with their internalized sense of conclusion. Overreliance on quick intuition leads to overconfidence in one’s unresearched judgment and puts a limit on how good decisions could be. The judge’s belief in their intuition leads them to overestimate how well they can predict objective unknowns in the future, such as the factors that will influence a candidate’s performance in a new role. As a result, they do not invest enough time in researching the impact of different outcomes. Such decisions also have the potential to be very noisy; in their emotionally heightened state, the judge is prone to the level error of their consistent biases, the pattern error of their tendency in this particular situation, and the occasion error that is shaped by their mood on the day in question.

While the rapidly intuitive judge is deluded about their ability to predict the future, superforecasters acknowledge their objective ignorance about the future and deploy more deliberative judgment practices to consider a broader scope of outcomes. Superforecasters, then, are counterintuitive in looking outside themselves for new information, listening to opposing opinions, and asking what would happen in different versions of the future. Only after this mind-expanding, situation-complicating process has taken place do they enlist their intuition. This application of intuition is therefore not an internal coherence based on what they themselves would wish to hear, but a final reward for the hard work of investigating a situation deeply. Ironically, while the ability to appear confident and make quick decisions based on internal knowledge is admired in the business and personal development worlds, the authors advocate being grounded yet curious students of a situation and disciplining one’s intuition as though it is a wild horse bent on a course that could lead the rider astray. The authors’ demotion of intuition fits into their larger argument about reducing noise because it aligns with research demonstrating how fallible humans are prone to paying attention to irrelevant information, including how good a particular choice feels to them at the beginning of the judgment process.

Noise Reduction and a More Equitable Society

The authors’ research shows that while some groups think that noise-reduction strategies contribute to a fairer society in ensuring that fewer irrelevant factors inform decisions, others think that noise-reduction impedes justice. This is nowhere more evident than in the debate on the federal sentencing guidelines implemented in 1987, which aimed to reduce unwanted variation in the sentencing of similar cases. Judge Marvin Frankel and his disciples argued that a system in which sentences reflected the predilections of particular judges rather than the crimes committed was inequitable. In such a system, all types of noise—level, pattern and occasion—prevailed, as the outcome of a case and a defendant’s fate were determined by unrelated information. However, the guidelines that aimed to counter such noise proved unpopular with judges who felt that they were prevented from exercising their specialized skills. Stith and Cabanes further argued that true justice could not be served when the particulars of each case were not being considered. They felt that the sentencing guidelines did not allow for fair consideration of a defendant’s background, and such blanket approaches contributed to dehumanizing defendants and reducing their dignity. While the authors acknowledge Stith and Cabanes’ view, they point to disparities in sentencing, since the 2005 demotion of the guidelines from mandatory to advisory, to argue that a noisier system is more unfair than one in which every particular of a defendant’s background is considered. Whereas Stith and Cabanes believe in the nobility and distinction of human judgment, the authors argue that human judgment is deeply flawed and needs checks and balances to prevail.

While the authors contend that algorithms can often help reduce noise because they cannot be influenced by the same predilections as humans, they acknowledge that algorithms can sometimes promote biases that favor traditionally dominant groups. For example, when discriminating against people who live in a zip code associated with a particular ethnicity, the algorithm can reinforce the norms of a backwards, regressive society. While the authors agree that prioritizing noise-reduction over the opportunities of traditionally marginalized groups is wrong, they argue for adapting the algorithms to reflect shifting societal attitudes by making them more complex. They also point out that “as humans, we are keenly aware that we make mistakes, but that is a privilege we are not prepared to share. We expect machines to be perfect. If this expectation is violated, we discard them” (160). Instead of having an all-or-nothing attitude where technology is concerned, the authors advocate for the use algorithms as a complement to structured human judgment. Simply by presenting data in a new way, algorithms can suggest a broader range of candidates for a job position than a human, who may succumb to the distraction of different types of noise. Overall, the authors demonstrate that devices, whether technological or human, that slow down and complicate conclusion bias help humans resist making repeated erroneous judgments that disadvantage certain demographics. While they acknowledge that no system will ever reach perfect judgment, the process of questioning and modifying decision-making practices will promote a greater level of fairness over time.

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