The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

In an era of de-globalization, countries would face demographic and geographic challenges. Years of declining birth rates, coupled with increasing life spans, would create demographic challenges. Some countries would experience worse crises than others. The globalized economy made geography almost irrelevant. All countries had access to global trade no matter where they were located. As a result, each country could specialize in one or two crops and/or products. In a de-globalized economy, geography would again become significant, leaving some countries in fortunate positions and others in difficult ones.

During the period of industrialization, societies transformed from rural to urban ones. Industrial jobs were located in cities, and technological developments in agriculture reduced the need for labor on farms. In urban settings, people have fewer children because they have less living space and less need for additional workers. In the industrial era, life expectancy increased given advances in hygiene and medicine. Populations thus became older. The later a country industrialized, the faster this process of declining birth rates and aging occurred. Most countries that had not already industrialized did so during the globalization period, at least to some extent. Because they could purchase food cheaply from abroad, they could shift to manufacturing lucrative products. Given these long-term trends of industrialization and urbanization, most of the world faces a future with large numbers of retirees and fewer young people. Retirees draw from investment funds and pay less taxes. Since not enough young people are paying into the system to support it, financial and political crises loom. The situation is most dire in China, where the population will be cut in half. Except for France, most European countries have grim demographics and are unlikely to be able to continue current levels of social programs. The US and Mexico are in better shape. The Millennial generation will come to the rescue for the US in the 2040s. New Zealand, which would likely partner with Australia, also has decent demographics. Several poor countries have large numbers of young people, but those countries face other more daunting challenges, such as feeding their people.

Except during the global economy, the world has always had geographies of success and extreme difficulty. Since moving goods and people via water is cheapest, countries with internal waterways have an advantage. Borders with natural protections, such as oceans, provide another advantage. In a world where food would not be globally traded, the ability to grow food in rich soil is a geographic asset. Given the need for oil and industrial inputs to sustain modern life, countries with reserves of those assets or access to them have a geographic advantage. If wage differentials for labor exist within the country or with surrounding countries, an efficient division of labor can benefit manufacturing. Examining the geography in a de-globalized era, the author rates the US and North America as having the best position. In Europe, he notes potential advantages for France, Spain, Portugal, the UK, and Scandinavia. Places like Germany, which is at the end of a long supply chain, would face more challenges. Japan, South Asia, New Zealand, and Australia have geographic advantages, especially if they form an alliance. China is in the worst position given the threat to its supply routes. Climate change adds to geographic woes, reducing areas conducive to crops, and its impact will be the worst in the most vulnerable countries. For example, it could upset rice cultivation, which requires just the right amount of rain.