The Singularity Is Near

For more than 180,000 years, Homo sapiens’ only record was the oral tradition. Stories and traditions were passed down from generation to generation via the spoken word. The earliest known writing was produced around 3400 BC. The introduction of symbols to stand in for words introduced a paradigm shift in human evolution. People relied on and developed this mode of recordkeeping for almost 5,000 years before the printing press was invented in 1440. Suddenly, reading and writing were accessible to more people, widening the collection and distribution of knowledge. Then, a mere 400 years later in 1868, the typewriter was invented, bringing text production into home and office. In 1971—only 103 years after the development of the typewriter—the first email was sent. Twenty-one years after this email, the first text message was sent. The history of language exploded after the creation of the written word, increasingly pressing on the gas pedal. The space between each step grew smaller and smaller.

Central to Ray Kurzweil’s work is the law of accelerating returns. Kurzweil argues that advances made in science and technology do not build upon one another in a linear fashion. Instead, human advances multiply, shooting out in multiple directions like dendrites, speeding up the rate of development. In The Singularity Is Near, Kurzweil cites several examples of this exponential growth, including the Human Genome Project. When the project began in 1990, the projection for completing the genome scan was thousands of years. A short 13 years later, the project was finished.

Many of Kurzweil’s predictions have come true. He proposed that a computer would be able to beat a Grand Champion chess player by 1998, and Gary Kasparov was defeated by IBM’s Deep Blue in 1997. He suggested that personal computers would be able to answer questions by drawing information from the internet by 2010—a field Google has monopolized until recent developments of accessible artificial intelligence (AI) models. Kurzweil projected that humans would be able to talk to their computers and give them commands by 2009, the same year that Siri was developed, and that AI models would pass the Turing Test by 2029, a measurement for determining how well a machine can exhibit humanlike intelligence. As of August 2023, two AI models have passed the Turing Test. While some of Kurzweil’s predictions in The Singularity Is Near have not come to fruition, Kurzweil’s predictions closely align with the trajectory of technological developments. As Kurzweil prepares to publish The Singularity Is Nearer in 2025, he will soon make further predictions for the future of humanity.

Kurzweil’s work has drawn more attention as artificial intelligence continues to develop and become a part of mainstream culture. Kurzweil predicts that AI will surpass human intelligence beyond passing the Turing Test. He proposes that the Singularity will be reached by 2045, a time during which humans and machines will have merged intelligence. At the same time, most diseases will be eradicated with nanobots, and humans will be able to connect through a synthetic neocortex. These advancements, Kurzweil argues, will bring about human immortality (“Ray Kurzweil’s Mind-Boggling Predictions for the Next 25 Years.” Medium, 22 Aug. 2018). The longevity of technology will make it possible for humans to guarantee their intelligence for much longer than the average human lifespan.

Some critics have argued that Kurzweil’s predictions lack credibility and reveal his disconnection from reality. They argue that concepts like machine consciousness and immortality are unrealistic in comparison to the historical trajectory of humankind.