The Singularity Is Near

In this last section, Kurzweil identifies the criticisms of his earlier works and systematically refutes them. Many of the critiques of his ideas fail to comprehend the scope of his theories. For example, the idea that technological progress may be halted or overcome by fundamentalist regimes contrasts with Kurzweil’s theory of the law of accelerating returns. Kurzweil argues that there is no stopping technological progress. It will march forward, despite the greatest efforts to halt this. History provides some evidence for this idea: Even in countries where totalitarian regimes took control, scientific advancement still took place and, in some instances, helped to overturn the oppressive powers that sought to disable them. However, history also shows examples of scientific and technological advancement being used to exert greater control and oppression, as the 20th century’s examples of Nazism and Sovietism reveal. Kurzweil acknowledges that scientific and technological advancement can be used for good or ill, but he remains optimistic that, with the right approach, the threats can be minimized. He does not, however, provide much information about what can be done to achieve the necessary safeguards.

The Exponential Advancement of Humanity is a theory that evolution, including technological and biological evolutions, always increases exponentially. One way to think about this is as the branches of a tree. When a tree trunk splits through bifurcation into two limbs, each limb then continues to split exponentially: Each new limb provides opportunities for more. The same is true of evolution: Each new evolutionary advancement provides space for a multiplied number of developments. Kurzweil repeatedly points to the exponential value of evolution as proof for his theory of the law of accelerating returns. Throughout the work, he traces the exponential values of various processes. As he addresses criticism in Chapter 9—such as the idea that all evolution is born out of a spiritual or divine influence and cannot be replicated—Kurzweil shows that evolution can and has been replicated, increasing over time.

Like a tree, however, the ability to accelerate eventually reaches its peak and no more branches can form. Kurzweil explains that when this happens, a paradigm shift occurs that starts the process over again. The Merging of Human and Mechanical Intelligence is a history of paradigm shifts. Questions about whether artificial intelligence can be viewed as conscious are countered when Kurzweil argues that AI is a manifestation and, therefore, an extension of human intelligence. Since pattern-recognition processing is modeled after the human brain, artificial intelligence represents humanity itself. The merging of the two will render them indistinguishable in the Singularity.

Evidence of this can already be seen. The prevalence of, and reliance upon, smartphones and technology has permeated every aspect of society. Most humans feel they cannot go through their day without access to their phone. Psychologists have even developed a name for the anxiety felt by those who have lost access to their smartphone—nomophobia. Smartphones have already greatly increased access to information: The internet provides people with ready access to any known information, enabling them to translate this information into knowledge. Kurzweil argues that the future will show an even greater conflation of human and mechanical intelligence. He proposes that the brains of humans will be plugged into a network that will allow them to access information even more readily.

All these shifts will radically alter what it means to be human. Kurzweil’s assertion that humans are merely patterns is a controversial idea. However, he argues that it is also a beautiful concept. Patterns exist forever; they are infinite. He believes that the brains of humans can be uploaded, secured into immortality. He conflates the pattern recognition of the brain with the patterns of human experience, aligning with the theme Patterns as Fundamental Reality. Kurzweil explains that these patterns are extremely important and far more reliable than spiritual belief:

As we apply our intelligence, and the extension of our intelligence called technology, to understanding the powerful patterns in our world (for example, human intelligence) we can re-create—and extend!—these patterns in other substrates. The patterns are more important than the materials that embody them (478).

For Kurzweil, the very nature of humanity is a pattern. When these patterns overlap and merge with other patterns, humans enter a period of total transcendence that he argues is greater than any spiritual transformation.