The Singularity Is Near

“I describe myself as a ‘patternist,’ someone who views patterns of information as the fundamental reality.”

Kurzweil argues that the unique processing power of the human brain is its ability to detect patterns, an assertion that reflects his belief in Patterns as Fundamental Reality. The core of his arguments for the Singularity is built upon his pattern finding as he considers how humans evolve and the history of their technological advancement. When machines take on this currently uniquely human quality of pattern finding and pattern making, the Singularity is achieved.

“This book will argue, however, that within several decades information-based technologies will encompass all human knowledge and proficiency, ultimately including the pattern-recognition powers, problem-solving skills, and emotional and moral intelligence of the human brain itself.”

Kurzweil suggests that once the Singularity reaches a certain point in its development, all non-biological intelligence will be considered human. He suggests that humans will be augmented with mechanical intelligence to such a degree that it will be impossible to determine where human intelligence ends and mechanical intelligence begins, thus embodying The Merging of Human and Mechanical Intelligence. Pattern recognition, a skill that has evolved to a unique degree in humans, will be harnessed by mechanical intelligence and change the direction of human evolution.

“Evolution is a process of creating patterns of increasing order […] I believe that it’s the evolution of patterns that constitutes the ultimate story of our world.”

Kurzweil rejects the notion that evolution is tied to complexity—that the more complex a model becomes, the more evolved it is. Instead, he suggests that order is the marker of a more evolved system. This aligns with the theme Patterns as Fundamental Reality: The more patterns that are discovered and identified, the more order there is. Since pattern recognition is fundamental to human intelligence, a higher level of intelligence is connected to an increased level of order.

“An evolutionary process is not a closed system: evolution draws upon the chaos in the larger system in which it takes place for its options for diversity. Because evolution also builds on its own increasing order, in an evolutionary process order increases exponentially.”

Kurzweil argues that increased complexity is not the marker of any evolutionary development, although complexity often results from evolution. Instead, he suggests that evolution leads to increased order. Order is another example of Patterns as Fundamental Reality. Kurzweil defines order as information fitting a specific purpose: This means that information is arranged in a way that accomplishes a developmental need—a pattern. In this way, evolution moves from chaos to order.

“When Moore’s Law reaches the end of its S-curve, now expected before 2020, the exponential growth will continue with three-dimensional molecular computing, which will constitute this sixth paradigm.”

Although Moore’s law has not yet reached the end of its S-curve, Kurzweil is correct that the need for new technologies is imminent. He proposes that the sixth paradigm will be marked by the use of molecular computing, a mode that takes its cue from biological computation. As the need for more circuit space increased to match computational demand, transistors grew smaller and smaller. However, Kurzweil explains that these transistors will reach a point when they can no longer accommodate the need.

“DNA is nature’s own nanoengineered computer, and its ability to store information and conduct logical manipulations at the molecular level has already been exploited in specialized ‘DNA computers.’”

Kurzweil proposes that smaller biological components, such as DNA, may provide the roadmap for the future of nanotechnology and the creation of machine intelligence that will ultimately match and then exceed human intelligence. The need to compress computation to the molecular level is driven by the expansive storage and processing power required to match the human brain’s ability. The Merging of Human and Mechanical Intelligence will rely on both technological and biological processes. Kurzweil argues that the blending of both will lead to the Singularity, when these two processes will become impossible to distinguish from one another.

“Most of the complexity of a human neuron is devoted to maintaining its life-support functions, not its information-processing capabilities. Ultimately, we will be able to port our mental processes to a more suitable computation substrate. Then our minds won’t have to stay so small.”

While Kurzweil praises the human brain for its capabilities and sophistication, he is also forthright about its limitations. Its capacity is restricted by the slowness of evolution and weighed down by its need for biological functioning. Kurzweil imagines a future within The Exponential Advancement of Humanity when humans are able to reach beyond this limitation through machine intelligence.

“Even if just equal in capacity to our brains, this nonbiological portion of our intelligence will be more powerful because it will combine the pattern-recognition powers of human intelligence with the memory and skill-sharing ability and memory accuracy of machines.”

Although the human brain has an amazing capacity, Kurzweil argues that future machine intelligence will be able to reach far beyond it. Once computers can recreate the uniquely sophisticated pattern-recognition processes of the brain, they will combine that power with a far more efficient system for storing and accessing information. Pattern recognition is the quality that gives humans their evolutionary advantage, and Kurzweil proposes that reverse-engineering how this process works will provide the key to the development of new AI models that will outperform the biological brain.

“Once a computer achieves a human level of intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it.”

In this passage, Kurzweil revisits the law of accelerating returns, showing how even the processes performed by computers are subject to his theory. The rapidity of machine intelligence development will increase exponentially, causing the 21st century to encompass vast amounts of biological and technological evolution.

“The massive parallelism of the human brain is the key to its pattern-recognition ability, which is one of the pillars of our species’ thinking.”

Kurzweil here emphasizes Patterns as Fundamental Reality once again. He compares the analytic processes of computers to the pattern recognition, or neuromorphic modeling, of the human brain. Once computers are able to simulate the process of finding and creating patterns, the Singularity will be achieved.

“Some observers have expressed concern that as we develop models, simulations, and extensions to the human brain we risk not really understanding what we are tinkering with and the delicate balances involved.”

Kurzweil addresses criticism and concerns about the continued development of machine intelligence. He argues that this viewpoint fails to recognize the careful and thoughtful effort of scientists, as well as the rigorous testing required to produce new technological advancement. He also suggests that there is no stopping The Exponential Advancement of Humanity. The evolution of machine intelligence will progress despite concerns about its ethical and safety implications.

“But if you proactively take care of the structure, repair all damage, confront all dangers, and rebuild or renovate parts from time to time using new materials and technologies, the life of the house can essentially be extended without limit.”

Kurzweil uses the metaphor of a house to illustrate the possibility of immortality for humans. Kurzweil argues that the longevity of the human body will expand in the Singularity, but the most important development will be the ability to upload one’s personality and intelligence so that it lasts forever. While this idea comes with a set of ethical concerns, as well as problems to face with storage and technologies, Kurzweil is confident that many of the humans alive when his book was published in 2005 will see the Singularity and experience a new relationship with their bodies.

“Emerging nanotechnology capabilities promise a profound impact on the environment. This includes the creation of new manufacturing processing technologies that will dramatically reduce undesirable emissions, as well as remediating the prior impact of industrial-age pollution.”

In this chapter, Kurzweil takes two approaches to discuss the impact of nanotechnology on the environment. The Exponential Advancement of Humanity will require an increasing amount of energy, a phenomenon that will drain the earth’s resources and further contribute to climate change. However, Kurzweil also argues that nanotechnology will make new forms of energy possible. These new sources of energy will go beyond merely avoiding contributing to climate change; they will help to reverse it.

“Once we fully master pattern-recognition paradigms, machine methods can apply these techniques to any type of pattern.”

The human brain is extremely skilled at finding and recognizing patterns. Kurzweil explains that this provided a major evolutionary advantage, as humans distinguished faces and objects and recognized language. However, human pattern recognition is less skilled at determining patterns in vast amounts of data, especially within the realm of mathematics. This is where computational intelligence moves beyond human intelligence. Once computers take the sophisticated pattern-recognition power of the human brain and apply it to all other fields, machine intelligence will surpass the human brain.

“Intelligence on and around the Earth will continue to expand exponentially until we reach the limits of matter and energy to support intelligent computation. As we approach this limit in our corner of the galaxy, the intelligence of our civilization will expand outward into the rest of the universe, quickly reaching the fastest speed possible.”

The law of accelerating returns will not stop once the Singularity is reached. Kurzweil argues that the acceleration will reach such a rapid pace that it will be impossible to tell the difference between biological and nonbiological intelligence. The drain on the resources and limitations of the planet will make it necessary to reach out into the galaxy. Kurzweil suggests that this will usher in a new epoch—the sixth epoch—during which time human intelligence will merge with the cosmos.

“Nonbiological intelligence should still be considered human, since it is fully derived from human-machine civilization and will be based, at least in part, on reverse engineering human intelligence.”

As contemporary writers and thinkers debate the moral and ethical implications of artificial intelligence, one concern that repeatedly arises is the possibility of being overtaken by these new forms of intelligence. Kurzweil argues that there will be no distinction between biological and nonbiological intellect. The design of artificial intelligence will be based upon the unique pattern-recognition capabilities of the human mind and will, therefore, be innately human.

“Historically, the only means for humans to outlive a limited biological life span has been to pass on values, beliefs, and knowledge to future generations. We are now approaching a paradigm shift in the means we will have available to preserve the patterns underlying our existence.”

Kurzweil presents a controversial and expansive view of immortality. He proposes that humans will secure their longevity through the development of machine intelligence. This will stand in stark contrast to the means of legacy that humanity relied on for the history of its existence. Once more, Kurzweil presents Patterns as Fundamental Reality: Unlocking patterns will allow humans to preserve them.

“Information is not knowledge. The world is awash in information; it is the role of intelligence to find and act on the salient patterns.”

Kurzweil draws a line between information and knowledge, presenting a new understanding of what it means to be human. While simple computers deal in data, sophisticated machines will use pattern recognition to create and refine knowledge. Since Kurzweil views Patterns as Fundamental Reality, the ability to turn information into knowledge is the essence of the human experience and consciousness.

“My point is that we cannot safely dismiss the question of consciousness as merely a polite philosophical concern.”

Although Kurzweil argues that there is no scientific measurement of consciousness, he says it is inevitable that humans think of machines as conscious. Looking at machine intelligence as conscious will change the way humans interact with and use new technologies. He argues that cultural understandings of technology will shift when machines are able to advocate for themselves and their emotional experiences.

“It is the persistence and power of patterns that support life and intelligence. The pattern is far more important than the material stuff that constitutes it.”

Kurzweil holds the human brain in high regard, particularly for its powerful ability to detect and make sense of patterns. Kurzweil views all life as patterns and all Patterns as Fundamental Reality. Therefore, life itself is a type of pattern. Human existence is about more than the cellular structure of the body. It is the human brain, the patterns of experience and existence, that make life an immortal phenomenon.

“Technology empowers both our creative and destructive natures.”

In this chapter, Kurzweil discusses the perils and dangers of advancing technology. He argues that technology will continue to evolve, despite any efforts to limit or destroy it. However, he proposes that there are precautions that can be taken to secure the positive outcomes of technological evolution.

“Although it may appear that these terrorists have no program other than destruction, they do have an agenda that goes beyond literal interpretations of ancient scriptures: essentially to turn the clock back on such modern ideas as democracy, women’s rights, and education.”

Kurzweil identifies several pitfalls and threats that may present themselves in the future as a result of machine intelligence. He recognizes that fundamentalist forces may use advancing technology to further their goals. However, he also argues that there is no stopping progress. Despite the best efforts of fundamentalist groups to use technology to limit the evolution of the modern world, the law of accelerating returns cannot be limited by the actions of any group of humans.

“The most important point here is that there is a specific game plan for achieving human-level intelligence in a machine: reverse engineer the parallel, chaotic, self-organizing, and fractal methods used in the human brain and apply these methods to modern computational hardware.”

Kurzweil asserts that any criticisms of the Singularity can be addressed by modeling technologies after the human brain. He believes that the limitations of AI or concerns about its ethical use are eradicated when the powerful pattern-recognition processing of the mind or a human’s emotional intelligence play a role in the development of new technologies. Scientists must begin by deconstructing and then reconstructing the human brain, something that Kurzweil argues will be completed by the end of the 2020s. Applying the brain’s functions to computers will enable scientists to eradicate potential problems.